| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | UTEP | 28-16 | 1484.3 | +2.2 | 1486.5 | 72.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Texas A&M | 22-44 | 1486.5 | +19.7 | 1506.2 | 7.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Air Force | 49-30 | 1506.2 | +71.3 | 1577.5 | 40.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | McNeese | 48-7 | 1577.5 | +14.9 | 1592.4 | 95.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Vanderbilt | 35-55 | 1592.4 | +2.0 | 1594.4 | 8.7% |
| 8 | Oct 12 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 26-44 | 1595.0 | -52.6 | 1542.4 | 68.2% |
| 9 | Oct 17 2025 | W | San José State | 30-25 | 1542.4 | +3.8 | 1546.2 | 57.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | New Mexico | 14-33 | 1546.2 | -32.1 | 1514.1 | 52.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Nevada | 51-14 | 1513.5 | +56.7 | 1570.2 | 71.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | UNLV | 26-29 | 1570.2 | -1.0 | 1569.2 | 40.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Fresno State | 28-17 | 1569.2 | +26.4 | 1595.6 | 48.6% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Boise State | 24-25 | 1595.6 | +5.2 | 1600.8 | 30.8% |
| 19 | Dec 22 2025 | L | Washington State | 21-34 | 1591.0 | -13.0 | 1578.0 | 36.2% |