| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Idaho State | 17-29 | 1537.3 | -44.3 | 1492.9 | 68.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Washington | 14-16 | 1492.9 | +38.0 | 1531.0 | 6.7% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Utah | 0-33 | 1531.0 | +9.5 | 1540.5 | 5.0% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Troy | 21-10 | 1540.5 | -3.1 | 1537.4 | 59.4% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Boise State | 18-37 | 1537.4 | -11.0 | 1526.4 | 19.3% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Washington State | 17-16 | 1526.4 | +8.0 | 1534.4 | 47.4% |